SuperCoach breakevens: what they are and how to calculate them
A SuperCoach breakeven is the score a player needs in his next game to keep his price where it is. Score above it and his price rises; score below it and it falls. Fantasy League Lens calculates breakevens with its own model, built from each player's price and his last two scores, and you can try the same formula in the calculator below.
What a breakeven tells you
SuperCoach moves each player's price after every game he plays, towards the value of his recent scoring. A breakeven turns that into one number: the score that leaves his price exactly where it is. It is the quickest way to answer two questions before a trade.
- Is this player about to get cheaper? A premium with a breakeven well above what he usually scores is likely to drop in price, so waiting a week may save money.
- Is this rookie still making money? A rookie with a breakeven far below his scoring is still rising. Once his breakeven catches up with his scores, his price has peaked and it is time to think about trading him up.
How SuperCoach breakevens are calculated
Fantasy League Lens uses its own model, reverse-engineered from real SuperCoach price movements. It does not copy SuperCoach's published figures. Each game, a player's price moves about a quarter of the way from his current price towards the value of his average over his last three scores:
value of scoring = magic number x (score 1 + score 2 + next score) / 3
next price = price + 0.25 x (value of scoring - price), rounded to $100,
never below the $99,100 rookie base price
breakeven = 3 x price / magic number - score 1 - score 2The magic number is the dollar value of one point of average. It is not fixed. Fantasy League Lens recalibrates it every week from the median across eligible players: after Round 23 of 2026 it was $4,839 per point, and after Round 24 it was $4,786, from 406 players.
Worked example: a premium
Say a premium costs $550,000 and his last two scores were 120 and 100. With a magic number of $4,786, his breakeven is 125.
- If he scores 140, his price moves to $556,100 (+$6,100).
- If he scores 100, his price moves to $540,100 (-$9,900).
He averaged 110 over those two games and still needs 125 just to hold his price, because his price already assumes he scores about 115 a game.
Worked example: a rookie
Now a rookie at $150,000 who has scored 70 and 85. His breakeven is -61. Even a poor score of 60 next game moves his price to $198,200 (+$48,200), because his price still assumes he scores about 31 a game.
That is why rookies drive a SuperCoach season. The cash they generate pays for upgrades to premiums, which is what one-down, one-up planning is about.
SuperCoach breakeven calculator
Enter a player's price and his last two scores. Add a score for his next game to see where his price would go.
- Breakeven
- 125
- Next price
- $556,100
- Change
- +$6,100
The magic number defaults to $4,786, the value our weekly calibration gave after Round 24 of the 2026 season. It will be recalibrated once 2027 prices start moving. Prices are rounded to the nearest $100.
What breakevens cannot tell you
A breakeven is about price, not points. A premium with a high breakeven may still be your best scorer, and a falling price only matters if you plan to trade him. Breakevens also move every round, so last week's number is already stale. Use them to time trades, not to pick your team.
Breakevens for the players in your league
Fantasy League Lens shows a modelled breakeven and next price for players in its Premium Trade Lab, and uses the same model to judge which rookies are still growing and which have peaked. A breakeven needs a player's last two scores, so the first 2027 figures appear once players have played twice. The free tier covers ownership, rival trade history and one league in each competition.
Free tier · No credit card · We never ask for your fantasy competition login details
Common questions
What is a breakeven in SuperCoach?
A breakeven is the score a player needs in his next game to keep his current price. If he scores more, his price rises; if he scores less, it falls. The further his score lands from the breakeven, the bigger the move.
How is a SuperCoach breakeven calculated?
SuperCoach prices follow a player's average over his last three scores. In the Fantasy League Lens model, the breakeven is three times the price divided by the magic number, minus the last two scores. The magic number is the dollar value of one point of average, about $4,786 at the end of the 2026 season.
Why do rookies have negative breakevens?
A rookie is priced as if he will score very little. Once he puts up two decent scores, his price is far below what those scores are worth, so even a score of zero next game would not pull his average down to his price. That shows up as a negative breakeven, and it means his price is almost certain to rise.
When will 2027 SuperCoach breakevens be available?
A breakeven needs a player's last two scores, so the first 2027 breakevens come once a player has played twice. Fantasy League Lens shows them for the players in your league as soon as the round data is in.