AFL Fantasy breakevens: what they are and how to calculate them
An AFL Fantasy breakeven is the score a player needs in his next game to keep his price where it is. Score above it and his price rises; score below it and it falls. Fantasy League Lens calculates AFL Fantasy breakevens with its own model, built from each player's price and his last four scores, and you can try the same formula in the calculator below.
What a breakeven tells you
AFL Fantasy moves each player's price after every game he plays, towards the value of his recent scoring. A breakeven turns that into one number: the score that leaves his price exactly where it is. It answers two questions before a trade.
- Is this player about to get cheaper? A premium with a breakeven well above what he usually scores is likely to drop in price, so waiting a week may save money.
- Is this rookie still making money? A rookie with a breakeven far below his scoring is still rising. Once his breakeven catches up with his scores, his price has peaked and it is time to think about trading him up.
How AFL Fantasy breakevens are calculated
Fantasy League Lens uses its own model, fitted to every real AFL Fantasy price move of the 2026 season. It does not copy the game's published figures. Each game, a player's price moves about a quarter of the way from his current price towards the value of a weighted average of his last five scores, with the newest counting five times as much as the oldest:
value of scoring = magic number x (1 x s1 + 2 x s2 + 3 x s3 + 4 x s4 + 5 x next) / 15
next price = price + 0.25 x (value of scoring - price), rounded to $1,000,
never below the $230,000 minimum price
breakeven = (15 x price / magic number - (1 x s1 + 2 x s2 + 3 x s3 + 4 x s4)) / 5s1 is the oldest of the last four scores and s4 the most recent. A player who has played fewer than four games has each missing score filled with his starting price divided by the magic number, which matches how real 2026 prices moved for players with short histories.
Checked against the 2026 season, this rule predicts 6,591 real price moves to a median error of $1,000, and 1,873 of them exactly. The magic number, the dollar value of one point of weighted average, is recalibrated every week from the median across eligible players. After the final home-and-away round of 2026 it was $9,386, from 393 players.
Why the last score matters most
The weights mean one big score moves an AFL Fantasy price more than it would in SuperCoach, and one bad score hurts more too. A score from five games ago carries a fifth of the weight of the newest one, and a score from six games ago has no effect at all. So a premium coming off a quiet game often has a lower breakeven next week than his season average would suggest, because the quiet game is now in his weighted history.
Worked example: a premium
Say a premium costs $1,000,000 and his last four scores, oldest first, were 110, 95, 120 and 105. With a magic number of $9,386, his breakeven is 104.
- If he scores 130, his price moves to $1,021,000 (+$21,000).
- If he scores 90, his price moves to $989,000 (-$11,000).
His price already assumes a weighted average of about 107, so anything near that holds him steady.
Worked example: a rookie
Now a rookie who started at $250,000 and has scored 80 and 95 in his first two games, taking him to $368,000. Because his two unplayed games still count at his starting price, his breakeven is -22. Even a modest 60 next game moves him to $432,000 (+$64,000), and 100 moves him to $464,000 (+$96,000).
That is where AFL Fantasy cash comes from. A rookie keeps rising while his scores beat his breakeven. As his starting-price games drop out of the five-game window his breakeven climbs towards his scoring, and that is when his price levels off.
AFL Fantasy breakeven calculator
Enter a player's price and his last four scores, oldest first. Leave a score blank for a game he has not played and enter his starting price instead. Add a next score to see where his price would go.
- Breakeven
- 104
- Next price
- $1,021,000
- Change
- +$21,000
The magic number defaults to $9,386, our calibration after the final home-and-away round of 2026. It will be recalibrated once 2027 prices start moving. Prices are rounded to the nearest $1,000 and held at the $230,000 minimum.
What breakevens cannot tell you
A breakeven is about price, not points. A premium with a high breakeven may still be your best scorer, and a falling price only matters if you plan to trade him. Breakevens also move every round, so last week's number is already stale. Use them to time trades, not to pick your team.
Breakevens for the players in your league
Fantasy League Lens shows a modelled breakeven and next price for AFL Fantasy players in its Premium Trade Lab, and its cash-cycle planner uses the same model to judge which rookies are still growing and which have peaked. The free tier covers ownership, rival trade history and one league in each competition. The 2027 AFL Fantasy season pass is A$19.99 until the first Round 1 game (7.30pm AEDT, Wednesday 17 March 2027), then A$24.99, with no subscription.
Free tier · No credit card · We never ask for your fantasy competition login details
Common questions
What is a breakeven in AFL Fantasy?
A breakeven is the score a player needs in his next game to keep his current price. If he scores more, his price rises; if he scores less, it falls. The further his score lands from the breakeven, the bigger the move.
How is an AFL Fantasy breakeven calculated?
AFL Fantasy prices follow a weighted average of a player's last five scores, with the newest counting most. In the Fantasy League Lens model, the breakeven is 15 times the price divided by the magic number, minus the last four scores weighted 1, 2, 3 and 4, all divided by 5. The magic number was about $9,386 per point at the end of the 2026 season.
How is an AFL Fantasy breakeven different from a SuperCoach one?
SuperCoach prices follow an even average of the last three scores, so a breakeven there uses the last two. AFL Fantasy weights the last five games, newest highest, so a breakeven uses the last four and the most recent score matters most. AFL Fantasy prices also move in $1,000 steps rather than $100.
Why do AFL Fantasy rookies have negative breakevens?
A rookie starts at a low price, and for the games he has not yet played the price rule uses his starting price. Once he puts up a couple of good scores, his price sits far below what that scoring is worth, so even a zero next game would not pull his value below his price. That shows up as a negative breakeven, and his price is almost certain to rise.